Tracy and Troy Predict the Oscars

I think it happened while I was living in Korea and suddenly became obsessed with all things pop culture as a way to keep connected with home. But somewhere in the past couple of years, I became a big Oscar junkie. I've always liked about looking at the dresses--the more horrific, the better--but now I actually care about who's hosting, who's nominated, who was snubbed, who's wearing what, who sported the most horrible and unconvincing frozen smile when s/he didn't win, and who acted like a flaming moron at the after-parties. I love the Oscars. It's almost as embarrassing as loving Band Aid.

Anyway, because of Marin's birth and my regrettable lack of local babysitters, I haven't seen many of the frontrunners in this year's nomination lineup as I usually like to. Does that stop me from having an opinion on who's going to win? Of course it does not. Because informed or not, I'm always happy to blather on about just about anything. Joining me will be my baby brother Troy, who was born to be a non-irritating Entertainment Tonight correspondent or US Weekly staff writer. Because the boy is a walking encyclopedia of pop culture knowledge, and he knows Oscar like nobody's business. So, here we go....

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
We have George Clooney (Syriana), Matt Dillon (Crash), Paul Giamatti (Cinderella Man), Jake Gyllenhall (Brokeback Mountain), and William Hurt (A History of Violence).

TRACY: I think Paul Giamatti was robbed when he didn't win for Sideways, and I loved, loved, LOVED his performance in Cinderella Man. He was just so sweet and goofy and, and, and ... awesome. However, I think Clooney is going to win this one, so the Academy can suck up to him over the fact that Good Night and Good Luck is going to get its booty kicked by Brokeback Mountain.

TROY: Giamatii is running a good race, but I have to agree with the Clooney pick. The publicity he has been getting is wicked. He also has all of the Good Night and Good Luck hype and will get the award by default. Plus, everyone in Hollywood loves him. He DOES have the casts of Ocean’s 11 and 12 voting for him.

TRACY: And he's hot.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Amy Adams (Junebug), Catherine Keener (Capote), Frances McDormand(North Country), Rachel Weisz (The Constant Gardener), and Michelle Williams (Brokeback Mountain).

TRACY: I have seen none of these films, although The Constant Gardener is in my NetFlix queue. I'll pick Michelle Williams, because the clips I've seen of her have been amazing, and I refuse to believe that Rachel Weisz can actually act. (The Mummy Returns, anyone?) Frances won already, and I think Amy Adams is supposed to bask in the nomination instead of thinking she has the proverbial hellbound snowball's chance in winning. I'll pick Catherine Keener as my second choice, just because Harper Lee is cool.

TROY: Sandra Bullock is also playing Harper Lee in the upcoming movie Infamous. I bet she’ll play the part like Keener, only with more suck. Anyway, I am so sick of the frickin’ Rachel Weisz award train (SAG, Golden Globe). Michelle Williams was amazing and heartbreaking in Brokeback. Plus she had Dawson's Creek to overcome! Dawson's Creek (She’s fairing much better than Kate Cruise too - Congrats on that Razzie nominee, Kate!). I think Weisz has it, but if the Academy is smart, Michelle Williams will walk away with the gold. And to add, Amy Adams was great in the mediocre Junebug. She was funny, poignant, and adorable. I’ve loved her since Cruel Intentions 2….uh, I mean Catch Me If You Can.

TRACY: Hey, what is this world coming to if Sandra gets no love from Troy? This is the same guy who has a hugeass, life-size-times-two poster of her in his room at Mom and Dad's? Poor Sandra.

BEST ACTOR:
Philip Seymour Hoffman (Capote), Terrence Howard (Hustle & Flow), Heath Ledger (Brokeback Mountain), Joaquin Phoenix (Walk the Line), and David Straitharn (Good Night and Good Luck).

TRACY: I'm going to go with Heath Ledger, just because I love a good comeback story. And the clips I've seen of him have been so impressively different from the rest of Ledger's mediocre body of work (Anachronistic medieval teen movie with terrible soundtrack, anyone?). Good for him. I wouldn't be surprised if Hoffman upsets Ledger, given that he's taking all the other awards so far, and he's splendidly weird in anything he's in. I was impressed by Phoenix's singing and his performance in Walk the Line, but sometimes he looked like he was plagued by sudden growth spurts. I can't comment on Straithairn, though I'm dying to see GN&GL. And since Hustle & Flow is Howard's "breakout performance," I'm guessing that his reward is that he, uh, broke out. Plus, he creeped me out at last year's Grammy's because he seemed a little too excited by Beyonce dancing on him while Destiny's Child sang "Cater to You."

And speaking of, what's up with that horrible song? These are the same women who sang "How you feel about a girl like this / Try to control me, boy you'll get dismissed/ Do what I want, live how I wanna live / Buy my own diamonds, and I pay my own bills?!?!" And their swan song is all about how they're going to wash some damn guy's socks and run his bathwater and how their lives would be "purposeless" without him? Fine, I understand that in a symbiotic, committed relationship of equals, it's acceptable to pamper the other and such roles can alternate in a balanced manner, but dude. Just what kind of message is that song sending all those future independent women out there who are combatting society's tendency to force them into defining themselves in terms of having a man? It's sick and wrong, and I won't have it. Take THAT, Terrence Howard!

TROY: Isn’t it more about the obnoxious, overexposed, blank, Beyonce than Terrence Howard? She’s lost it. “Thanks ya’ll.” Gag. I threw up a little in my mouth when I heard that song.

TRACY: (Ewww. Gross.) And that line about "keeping my figure right?" I HATE that line. Because dude, if I'm going to hold down a job and run after two children and try to forge a writing career, not to mention hauling furniture and putting together an entire house all by myself while pregnant and my husband is off gallivanting with the military, and if I just happen to gain a little bit of weight while doing it, that boy had BETTER be loving it unless he wants to pay for liposuction. I'll keep my damn figure right when I'm a woman of leisure with a gym membership and a freaking nanny, that's what.

TROY: Just wow. Anyway, I’m really rooting for Heath Ledger. He played the part of Ennis DelMar with a combination of melancholy, longing, and joy. Just amazing. He has to carry much of the movie by himself and he does such a fantastic job. The comeback story is always good too (except when it applies to Lisa Kudrow-- or people that should NEVER come back--DEBBIE GIBSON?). Plus, Phillip Seymour Hoffman did the abysmal Along Came Polly with Frumpiston. Need I say more? Terrence Howard was good, but I preferred him in Crash.

TRACY: I wish you'd stop calling Jennifer Aniston "Frumpiston!" She's getting enough hate from Black Widow Jolie. And much as I hate to admit it, most of us are frumpy next to Jolie.

BEST ACTRESS:
Judi Dench (Mrs. Henderson Presents), Felicity Huffman (Transamerica), Keira Knightley (Pride & Prejudice), Charlize Theron (North Country), and Reese Witherspoon (Walk the Line).


TRACY: Keira Knightley was nominated? Keira Freakin' Knightley? Keira the snaggletoothed stick insect who badmouthed Colin Firth and talks through her nose? Best actress?! I think I need to go lie down.

TROY: I heard she was really cute and great as Elizabeth Bennett.

TRACY: Jennifer Ehle kicked her ass, man!

TROY: But Jennifer Ehle didn’t pose nude on the cover of Vanity Fair for more credibility.

TRACY: Right. Well, I'm going with Felicity Huffman, because my deepest respect goes out to any actress who is willing to shed her vanity and play a man becoming a not-so-good-looking woman. And I just like Felicity Huffman--she's a great actress and she seems like a nice, down-to-earth person. Not that I'd be disappointed if Reese Witherspoon won. Her June Carter was lovely.

TROY: It’s Reese VS Felicity. They’ve split the major awards almost down the middle. I want Reese to win because she can take a bad movie and make it tolerable/”cute” (Sweet Home Alabama, Legally Blonde 2). I love her. Plus her earlier work in Freeway and Election (not such a great movie, but she’s hilarious in it) speaks volumes. However, I think Felicity might take it because Hollywood loves the comeback stories. Before Desperate Housewives, she starred in a string of failed TV shows and has really become a major success, commercially and critically. She seems like a nice, intelligent person, and I’ll be happy for her if she wins.

TRACY: Keira Freakin' Knightley. Why didn't they just go ahead and nominate her for Domino while they were at it, and REALLY give the Academy some credibility?

TROY: At least it’s not Kiki Dunst. There was Oscar buzz for the fanged one in Elizabethtown. Thank God that crashed and burned.

TRACY: True. There's nothing award-worthy about the way she slouches and bares her teeth in every film she's in. Ugh.

DIRECTOR:
George Clooney (Good Night & Good Luck), Paul Haggis (Crash), Ang Lee (Brokeback Mountain), Bennett Miller (Capote), Steven Spielberg (Munich).

TRACY: I'm going with Ang Lee. I've loved him ever since he directed Sense & Sensibility with such sensitivity and faithfulness to Jane Austen's vision. He had me at "Is love a fancy or a feeling?" I haven't seen Brokeback Mountain yet, but it's Ang Lee. How can you not love it? His films are so beautifully emotional without being sentimental.

TROY: Ang Lee did an amazing job. It’s just a breathtaking film. With simple shots, he conveys such complex emotions. Plus he got a former DAWSON’S CREEKer to be the breakout of the film. He’s definitely rebounded from that Hulk disaster. He’s got it, hands down. If Clooney isn’t awarded Supporting, he may be a shot, but I really think Ang’s got it.

PICTURE
Brokeback Mountain, Capote, Crash, Good Night and Good Luck, Munich

TRACY: Still going with Brokeback here, although I would love to see Crash get some Oscar love. Sure, it had lessons to teach us, but it was also just a good movie, with three-dimensional characters. compelling stories, and stunning twists.

TROY: Brokeback all the way. Crash is the dark horse, but it doesn’t have the momentum that Brokeback has. The cast was brilliant though. They have the knowledge of a good job well done. Crash also has the Sandra Bullock curse (I love her, but everything she touches….). Brokeback is just a juggernaut and will be victorious.

TRACY: Still no unqualified love for Sandra from Troy. She's not the box office poison Sharon Stone is, by far. And really, I think her recent flops had more to do with bad writing than bad acting. I still love her.